A Future Jordan - نحن الأردن

A Must read.... Jordan must democratize to be spared U.S. wrath by Rana Sabbagh

Jordan must democratize to be spared U.S. wrath
By Rana Sabbagh-Gargour
Monday, March 28, 2005

Jordan must today make a clear choice to initiate bold political reform, or lose face at home and invite interference from abroad. For now it has managed to deflect close foreign scrutiny of its teetering political reform efforts, mostly on the strength of its backing for Washington's policies, the war on terror, and its diplomatic ties with Israel. However, these issues remain deeply unpopular in a country where the majority of the population is anti-American.

But time is no longer on the Jordanian government's side. A breeze of democracy is blowing across the Middle East, whether in Palestine and Iraq, both of which remain under foreign occupation, in autocratic Egypt and Saudi Arabia, or in Lebanon. Jordan realizes it has to move fast, now that U.S. President George W. Bush is waging a fierce battle to spread democracy and economic reform throughout the region. Hesitant policies during the past decade, which have turned Jordan into a "liberalized autocracy" overseeing a corporate economy rather than a constitutional monarchy with elected governments, do not work any longer.

This shady strategy has raised concern among the Jordanian business and political elite alike: soon the kingdom may no longer be the darling of the West. Other emerging pro-Western democracies could surpass Jordan as a genuine political model. Those in the elite feel that it is inevitable that the U.S. will eventually turn its attention to Amman, and will not tolerate further clampdowns by the intelligence services on activists and opposition groups, while keeping a tight
grip on the country as in other states in the Middle East.

A case at point is the recent arrest of a union activist, Ali Hattar, and what appears to be an imminent crackdown against the country's influential professional associations, long-time bastions of opposition to the regime's policies. Bush was surprised by a question about Hattar's arrest during a news conference in January. Hattar, who hails from Jordan's Christian minority, was briefly detained several times in the past and faces a two-year prison term for slandering the government. Bush said he was unaware of the case, but urged Jordan's King Abdullah II "to make sure that democracy continues to advance in Jordan." The message was again reiterated during talks between the U.S. president and the king in Washington last Tuesday.

Abusive behavior by the Jordanian authorities will continue to come under scrutiny in Washington. The kingdom's faltering political reforms and lack of democracy may eventually embarrass the U.S. and test Bush's credibility in a region where many accuse his administration of promoting democracy only among enemies, while turning a blind eye to abuses by allies. Many fear that Washington really only seeks to block accession to power of anti-American and anti-Israeli forces.

In the eyes of many Jordanians, King Abdullah has wholeheartedly adopted the rules of economic globalization since he took over the throne in 1999, turning Jordan into a model for the region. But they also believe he has shown less enthusiasm for consolidating Jordan's march toward democracy, a process which his father launched in 1989, when most Arab countries were opposed to this idea. Democratic half-measures, often shaped by external political considerations and domestic challenges, have reduced Jordan's competitive advantage as a model for emerging democracy.

There are more limits on political activity now than there were a decade ago. The reversal began shortly before the peace treaty with Israel was signed. Liberalization moves received a death knell when the regime used the war on terror after the September 11, 2001 attacks to justify a crackdown against the Islamist-led opposition at home. All laws dealing with the media, public gatherings and parliamentary elections were tightened, more so during the past three years. Civil society has remained weak and ineffective, as have the 33 political parties operating since a ban was lifted in 1990. Mosque preachers are selected by the government, and their sermons for Friday noon prayers are censored.

All the media, including independent newspapers, are forced to toe the official line and to carry photos of the king's daily functions on their front pages. They take their cue from palace, government and security officials. The government is also pushing a law in Parliament that would dilute Islamic power, at the expense of strengthening the tribes that are normally loyal to the monarchy. Human rights watchdog organizations say the draft law violates free speech.

At the same time, nepotism, favoritism, a weak system of checks and balances, all problems that the king once sought to curb after he took over power, are making a strong comeback. And so are those traditional old-guard politicians who still enjoy the perks and cash handouts that have long been used to buy loyalty. More specifically, charges of corruption and of conflicts of interest have become a cause of widespread concern after a series of multi-million dollar contracts were awarded recently, without competitive bids, to a local businessman with strong links to the circles of power.

Despite this bleak outlook, Jordan's salvation can only come from implementation of new structural democratic reforms promoted by the king - reforms that must not remain ink on paper. Two royal commissions have been formed over the past month or so to lay down a plan of action for reforms. One of the two is drafting a national agenda, a road map for Jordan during the next 10 years. The other is looking into government decentralization, by creating three regional councils. However, the scope of power and prerogatives of these councils have yet to be determined.

Their agendas, which are being supervised by Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher, an icon for political liberalism, will have a specified time framework to ensure full implementation, with target policies reflected in budget allocations. The process could help generate a badly-needed national consensus on building a new and modern Jordanian system based on equality, merit, the rule of law and good governance.

Such a system could engage the entire Jordanian population and give King Abdullah a chance to name a new reformist government, with a clear mission to forge ahead with reforms allowing the kingdom to escape Washington's wrath.

Rana Sabbagh-Gargour is an Amman-based journalist and columnist, and the former chief editor of The Jordan Times. This commentary was written for THE DAILY STAR.

posted by Ashraf Zeitoon @ 4:20 AM