A Future Jordan - نحن الأردن

Jordan Moving Forward by Kenneth Katzman

Jordan Moving Forward
by Kenneth Katzman
The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research
14 Jun 2005

Eleven years after its peace treaty with Israel, and five years after the accession of King Abdullah II, Jordan has been infused with new energy on both the political and economic fronts, led by a new cabinet appointed in April 2005. The new cabinet, under leadership of Prime Minister Adnan Badran, has been specifically mandated to jump-start long-stalled reform.

On the political front, these officials and the rest of King Abdullah II's team are attempting to build on Jordan's longstanding and largely successful strategy of political tolerance. The strategy of inclusiveness and tolerance has thus far kept the Islamic fundamentalist Islamic Action Front (IAF), the largest of Jordan's 31 legal parties, non-violent and committed to working within the legitimate political process. Although there has been some political violence in the kingdom, Jordan has been mostly spared the waves of Islamist uprisings seen in nearby Egypt. Jordanian nationals have not, for the most part, been eager recruits for al-Qaeda. On the other hand, it should be noted that Osama bin Laden's spiritual mentor, Dr. Abdullah al-Azzam, was a Jordanian of Palestinian origin, as is the pro-al- Qaeda militant leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The king's new team is, first and foremost, pushing a concept of decentralization—empowering localities at the expense of the Amman-based center. The team notes that only about half of Jordan's local mayors are now elected, and the government wants to institute elections for all mayors and municipal councils in Jordan's estimated 100 municipalities. The team also plans to institute a version of federalism by dividing the country into three administrative regions, each presumably more attuned to the needs of their region and better positioned than Amman to focus economic development.

The government has also appointed 200 mostly young Jordanians to work on a 'national agenda'. According to the country's leadership, the agenda will focus on how to reform eleven different political and economic sectors. In addition, the government is wrestling with new laws on political parties, as well as on the licensing of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). NGOs are watching the drafting process closely to ensure that the law on NGOs is not too restrictive, although the government wants to ensure that NGOs in Jordan cannot become a tool for regional extremist organizations. Similarly, the law over political parties will be intended to try to strengthen secular parties to enable them to compete with the IAF, which virtually dwarfs all other parties in terms of membership. A new election law is likely to expand Jordan's elected Chamber of Deputies beyond its current 110 members. However, to move forward faster, the mindset of Jordan's parliamentarians might have to change somewhat. Even though they have that formal power, parliamentarians are still hesitant to draft legislation themselves, preferring instead to react to government draft bills.

The thrust of the new cabinet's economic programs is to increase the size of the private sector relative to the government economic sector. The team has also set a highly ambitious goal of 7.5% growth per year through the end of the decade. Helping the new team is a real estate boom fueled by the relocation of Iraqis fleeing instability in their homeland, as well as the location and relocation of US and other programs intended to assist Iraq and train Iraqi security and government personnel. The end of UN sanctions against Iraq has ensured a steady stream of goods offloaded at Aqaba port and trucked into Iraq, providing employment and fees for Jordan.
Jordan has unveiled major plans to attract more vacationers and holiday home-buyers to Aqaba. Jordan's exports are benefiting greatly from Jordan's free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States and production from the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ's), created in the context of peace with Israel.

The reformist government acknowledges that it is up against entrenched and determined resistance. Jordan's traditional power structure recognizes that a merit and rule-based private sector-driven economy is a threat. The traditional power structure, especially the still strong tribal leaders throughout Jordan, has viewed the government as a source of employment and patronage for their constituents. A public sector that is no longer growing and hiring therefore denies tribal leaders the ability to provide constituent service. The new government team says it will find alternative means to satisfy the traditional power structure, such as by granting tribal leaders more control over local development projects that will employ Jordanians. Tribal leaders, however, remain skeptical and continue to form a major core of opposition to reform.

Another obstacle in the way of progress is the recent rapid rise in oil prices. Jordan subsidizes gasoline prices for its citizens by buying crude oil and providing it to refineries. Therefore, when oil prices rise, the budgetary demand on the government for that subsidy also rises.With the Saudi grant now expired amid the possibility of non-renewal or finding no alternatives, and with oil prices rising over $50 per barrel, Jordan faces an oil bill of over US$500 million per year, a very large commitment. Eliminating the oil subsidy, on the other hand, would likely spark unrest, and Jordan is unwilling to run that risk.

Jordan's new government faces several hurdles. Some are particularly connected with the possibility of a partial change of the guard as dictated by geographic considerations, specifically related to representation in the southern region. However, the government appears determined to catapult Jordan forward.

Jordan is reaping the benefit of the perception that it is an island of stability amid turmoil to its east and its west. Its extensive cooperation with US policy toward Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process virtually ensures that it will not receive major criticism from the Bush administration even if political reform moves forward only slowly. The new government team, however, remains up against traditional attitudes and approaches in an essentially conservative society, and even the most optimistic members of the new government team believe that they need to improve their communication of the benefits of reform to the large segments of the population that remain skeptical.

posted by Ashraf Zeitoon @ 6:49 AM