A Future Jordan - نحن الأردن

Al- Qaeda Strikes Jordan: Dimensions and Repercussions

Al- Qaeda Strikes Jordan: Dimensions and Repercussions
The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research

Three important conclusions can be drawn from the attacks launched by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, against three hotels in the Jordanian's capital Amman on Wednesday evening, November 9th, 2005. Firstly, the group has its own agenda and not necessary that of the main group led by Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahri; secondly, it lacks clear strategic vision of its objectives and plans; and thirdly it has a "surplus of force" in terms of men, equipment and logistical capability.

In addition to what has been said regarding "power struggle" within Al-Qaeda and the reported message sent by Al-Zawahri to Al-Zarqawi, which reveals a conflict in their points of view; it is clear that Al-Zarqawi's attacks, especially in his main battlefield (Iraq), are carried out without any coordination or agreement with "Al-Qaeda of Bin Laden and Al-Zawahri".

Despite the historical "status" of Bin Laden as the world's most wanted after 9/11 attacks, nobody denies that Al-Zarqawi gained a higher status among those who are called "princes of terrorism " due to the semi daily mass killing attacks against Iraqi civilians, policemen, and army men, especially the Shiites, in addition to the continuous kidnapping and killing operations against civilians and diplomats in Iraq.

In this context, the actual status of Al-Zarqawi and his group have been elevated to the extent that one can't categorize them as a mere branch of a larger group. There is no doubt that the state of Al-Qaeda's fragmentation is due to the severe and relentless blows it has suffered and the tight siege on its prominent leaders. This situation gave rise to Zarqawi's leadership and his agenda, which differs from that of bin Laden's.

While the main group of Al-Qaeda tries to launch attacks against Western targets, especially in the Western capitals and cities and accelerate a shameful American withdrawal from Iraq, most of Al-Zarqawi's efforts are directed towards the Shiites and civilians in Iraq, and the guests of hotels and wedding celebrations in Amman.

Currently, Bin Laden seeks to carry out attacks against Anglo-Saxon targets or against countries participating in what he calls "the crusaders' campaign against Islam." This is clear in the operations launched against the coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, aimed at embarrassing the Western governments and influencing their peoples and media to force changes in their governments' policies towards the region and speed up the dismantling of the Western coalition on "war on terrorism." But it seems the abovementioned motives are not priorities on Al-Zarqawi's agenda.

We cannot endorse any assessment that lessens the impact of the atrocities committed by Al-Qaida against Islam and Muslims in particular and humanity in general, but comparing what is done by this group, founded in the late 1980s, with what is apparent from Al-Zarqawi's agenda after Iraq's occupation shows how these terrorist groups have evolved in their savage and appalling acts.

An essential question arises about the objectives of the planners of the Amman attacks that killed 57 and injured around 100 persons. Despite the dozens of articles and analyses that filled the media about these attacks, many people have not figured out yet the precise objectives of Al-Zarqawi group. There doesn't seem to be a lack of analyses; instead, it is clear that the officials' assessments and monitors' analyses failed to identify logical pretexts for the crime due to the absence of such pretexts in the first place.

The immediate results of the attacks have been clear on the Jordanian, Arab, Islamic and international levels, which widely rejected and condemned the attacks. It seems that these attacks increased the solidarity of the Jordanian society and enhanced the ties between the Jordanian leadership and its people. Thus, Al-Qaeda group (in Iraq) lost a lot of the sympathy that was gaining from the Jordanian street, which considered the group's activities in Iraq as fighting the occupation.

On the other hand, the Jordanian security services have become more vigilant and more prepared to face future operations and to control the Iraqi borders. King Abdullah declared that he is fully and relentlessly determined to combat terrorism. He added also that his country "will no longer tolerate those adopting deviating thoughts of Takfeer (charging others of being infidels)." Jordan now is receiving offers of help for coordination and security from many countries and great powers in the region and international community.

In a simple review, it is clear that until now these attacks didn't yield their perpetrators any fruits. And the statement that Al-Zarqawi group was forced to issue after declaring its responsibility of the attacks, which seems to justify the attacks rather than to explain them, may support this suggestion. The statement, which came after huge protests arranged by Jordanians against terrorism, stated that the attacks "targeted anti Islamic centers and favorite sites for the USA and Israeli intelligence members." Undoubtedly, this statement cannot improve the image of the group in view of its huge blunder and lack of logic.

Referring back to the third conclusion of the Amman attacks regarding the "Al-Zarqawi group's surplus of power," it is definitely not a positive one since that power can be used to harm soft civilian targets in many countries. And "surplus of power" here means what the group has in terms of suicide persons, arms, and logistical capability as embodied in training, transportation, accommodation, preparations, coordination, and communications. All these were available outside the Iraqi borders (the main battlefield that needs all the available abilities) and were used in attacks that one cannot imagine having rational objectives behind them, even from the view of Al-Zarqawi's greatest sympathizers or the extreme opponents of the Jordanian policies.

In fact, the November attacks in Amman represent, in many ways, a point of departure. The attacks are the severest that have hit the Jordanian capital in history, and they will surely be highly effective in rallying the public and governmental efforts against terrorism in Jordan. These attacks will certainly enhance the international and regional coordination efforts against terrorism and reduce the emphasis on the international and regional factors that feed that sympathy, especially those related to the Israeli occupation of the Arab territories and the Israeli practices against the Palestinians.

Whether the Amman blasts came as a result of "surplus of power" in Al-Zarqawi's group, or to achieve certain goals inside Jordan, or due to strategic mistake, or tactical error, it is clear that recruiting Iraqi suicide attackers, directing them to carry out operations in a capital known for its high security measures, and launching attacks leading to many victims, are factors that should increase caution and hasten the efforts to develop regional and international strategies and mechanisms to combat the terrorist attacks in their different phases.

posted by Ashraf Zeitoon @ 3:43 AM